NFL Betting Pick: New Orleans Saints Visit Surging Tennessee Titans

Saturday, December 10, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Drew Brees - NFL Betting Pick: New Orleans Saints Visit Surging Tennessee Titans

Analysis:
A memo to Green Bay Packers fans: Go ahead and buy those playoff tickets for Lambeau Field, but you might want to hedge on the Super Bowl plans...just in case.

Because if the recent exploits of the New Orleans Saints are indicative, the road to representing the NFC at this year's Big Game in Indianapolis may not necessary be lined with cheeseheads.

In fact, since a head-scratching 10-point loss at previously winless St. Louis on Halloween eve, the Saints have looked less like speed bumps and more like legitimate title challengers.

In four games since that loss, which came against playoff contenders Tampa Bay, Atlanta, the New York Giants and Detroit, New Orleans has won by an average score of 33-20 while racking up a combined 1,831 total yards.

Test No. 5 comes Sunday at Nashville's LP Field, where the Saints visit the Tennessee Titans.

New Orleans now leads the NFC South by two games over Atlanta, with the two rivals also set to face one another at the Superdome in Week 16. The Saints are currently the No. 3 seed in the conference, three games behind the unbeaten Packers and one back of the West-leading San Francisco 49ers.

Green Bay beat New Orleans, 42-34, in the regular-season opener at Lambeau.

Drew Brees completed 26-of-36 passes for 342 yards in last week's 31-17 win over Detroit. His 4,031 passing yards are tops in the NFL this season, and he's the first quarterback in league history to eclipse 4,000 in the first 12 games of a campaign.

Oh, and the Saints are averaging 32.8 points per game overall, a tick above the 31.9 per-game clip that ultimately yielded a win over Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV two seasons ago.

But it hasn't all been fun and games.

The New Orleans defense has been far from breathtaking, allowing an output of 378.8 yards per week that's surely a focal point in the preparation of Titans running back Chris Johnson, who went for 153 yards in last Sunday's 23-17 victory at Buffalo. A week earlier, he had a season-best 190 yards against Tampa Bay.

Johnson, a well-publicized training camp holdout, gained just 509 yards in his first 10 games before his pair of outbursts.

Tennessee trails first-place Houston by two games in the AFC South and is one of four 7-5 teams in the mix as the conference Wild Card race hits the home stretch.

And if Johnson's legs are fresh now thanks to the summertime theatrics, all the better.

The Titans own a 7-4-1 lead in their all-time series with the Saints and registered their fourth straight victory over New Orleans with a 31-14 triumph at the Superdome in 2007. Tennessee also bested the Saints by a 27-12 count in Nashville in 2003 and posted a 24-21 road win over New Orleans in 1999.

The Saints' last positive result in the set took place in 1993, a 33-21 decision over the then-Houston Oilers at the Superdome, with the Oilers exacting revenge via a 31-14 road verdict in New Orleans three years later. The Saints haven't beaten the Tennessee franchise on the road since Sept. 30, 1984, a 27-10 final in Houston.

These teams also squared off in New Orleans during the final week of the 2011 preseason, with the Titans rolling to a 32-9 win on Sept. 1.

Saints head coach Sean Payton has an 0-1 lifetime record against the Titans, while Mike Munchak will be facing both Payton and New Orleans for the first time as a sideline boss.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 11, 2011. LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee

Last Week's results:
- New Orleans Saints (-9) beats visiting Detroit Lions 31-17.
- Tennessee Titans (+1) beats host Buffalo Bills 23-17.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite New Orleans Saints (9-3) wins and covers
- Underdog Tennessee Titans (7-5) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Saints -4, O/U 50

Next up:
- New Orleans at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, December 18
- Tennessee at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, December 18

New Orleans has won four straight since a stunning loss to St. Louis, opening a two-game lead in the NFC South. The Saints have done it behind a prolific offense that ranks first in the NFL in total yards (448.7) and second in scoring (32.8). Brees leads the league with 4,031 passing yards, the first player in NFL history to top 4,000 yards in the first 12 games of the season. The Saints have also boasted a strong running game, but rookie Mark Ingram, who leads the team with 474 rushing yards, might have to sit out with turf toe.

Led by resurgent running back Chris Johnson, the Titans have kept themselves right in the thick of the AFC wild card race by winning three of four. After rushing for only 366 yards in the first eight games this season, Johnson has gained 486 yards on the ground in the past four. Matt Hasselbeck, who shredded the Saints for 272 yards and four touchdowns with only one interception in Seattle's 41-36 win in last year's wild card round, has 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in his career against New Orleans.

A red-hot Brees has been other-worldly through 12 games and could continue the run against a Tennessee team stuck firmly in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense. With a Green Bay-like variety of targets, it's hard for opponents to concentrate on limiting just one.

Now that the checks are signed and the cash deposited, Tennessee's Johnson is showing the form that made executives think he was worth the extra millions to begin with. For the Titans to compete, he'll need to extend possessions and shorten the game on the ground.

TE Jimmy Graham has been overshadowed some by New England's Rob Gronkowski this season, but is firmly on pace to eclipse the league record of 1,290 receiving yards by a tight end established by Kellen Winslow in 1980. He eclipsed 1,000 yards last week with eight catches against Detroit and will be a player the Titans need to pay attention to.

Brees has at least one touchdown pass in 39 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history, and at least 20 completions in an NFL-record 32 straight.

Titans WR Nate Washington needs 20 receiving yards to surpass his career high of 687 set last season.

Saints RB Darren Sproles is the only player in the league with at least two rushing touchdowns (2), two receiving touchdowns (4) and a return touchdown.

Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tennessee is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tennessee is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road

The Titans have bent in terms of surrendering yardage, but haven't broken by not allowing too many points through 12 games. Still, the streaking Saints provide a challenge unlike what they've seen before. And even if the Brees offensive showcase is somewhat slowed, it would take an uncharacteristic slew of errors for New Orleans' offense to shut down enough to stop the win streak.

Bet on NFL Football games with Bodog Sportsbook, click here!

NFL Football Pick: Take Saints.

Related Articles

Category

Tags

afc south - buffalo bills - chris johnson - darren sproles - detroit lions - drew brees - green bay packers - indianapolis colts - jimmy graham - lambeau field

Share this page